Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Mariners vs Pirates - Thursday June 25, 2026

-150O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)+130

Bryce Miller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Recording 18 outs per GS this year on average, Bryce Miller checks in at the 91st percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive talent to be a .345, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .093 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .252 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
The Seattle Mariners have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bubba Chandler today.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
Jake Mangum has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)
J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+13.10 Units / 60% ROI)

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