
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Atlanta Braves
-155O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)+135
(-120/+100)+135
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Compared to league average, Tyler Glasnow has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Kyle Tucker has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Bryce Elder has relied on his sinker 14.5% less often this season (27.7%) than he did last season (42.2%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Austin Riley has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 96.9-mph in the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+135)The Atlanta Braves projected batting order projects as the 4th-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+13.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
