Player Trends for Pirates vs Padres – Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Paul Skenes’s high usage rate of his fastball (52% this year) is likely hurting his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Over the last 14 days, Spencer Horwitz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Michael King’s 92.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 19th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 98.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Paul Skenes has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 73% ROI)