Review Betting Odds and Picks for Orioles vs Cardinals - Tuesday, August 25, 2026

+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130

Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Bassitt has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6% more often this season (55.2%) than he did last year (49.2%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
Samuel Basallo is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Baltimore Orioles bats as a group rank near the top of the majors this year () as it relates to their 90-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Out of all starting pitchers, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2113 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
This season, Alec Burleson has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year’s 92.6 mph mark.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 62% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)
Samuel Basallo has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)

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