Learn About Royals vs Rays Picks and Betting Trends – Thursday June 25, 2026

Kansas City Royals

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Tampa Bay Rays

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Seth Lugo has averaged 93.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Nick Loftin is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under Total Bases
  Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (37.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ian Seymour must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 63.9% of the time, checking in at the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Junior Caminero has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 97.4-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.