Explore the Game Breakdown: Cubs vs Mets Team Stats and Insights – 6/24/2026

Chicago Cubs

@

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Javier Assad has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -10.5 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Sean Manaea’s sinker utilization has increased by 25.9% from last year to this one (0.4% to 26.3%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under Hits
  Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under Total Bases
  Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)