Explore the Game Breakdown: Cubs vs Mets Team Stats and Insights – 6/24/2026

Chicago Cubs

@

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Shota Imanaga has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-220)
  Carson Kelly has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 84.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Due to his large platoon split, Sean Manaea will have a disadvantage being matched up with 7 hitters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+215/-295)
  Michael Busch has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 away games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)