
Milwaukee Brewers
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Cincinnati Reds
-145O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+120
(-110/-110)+120
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Shane Drohan – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)Compared to average, Shane Drohan has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -11.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)William Contreras has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)With 6 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Rhett Lowder will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
