
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Chicago White Sox
-145O/U: 9
(+100/-120)+120
(+100/-120)+120
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Roki Sasaki’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.2 mph this season (96.6 mph) over where it was last year (95.4 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Chuckie Robinson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Chuckie Robinson has compiled a .000 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, checking in at the 0th percentile.Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Anthony Kay – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Anthony Kay has tallied 14.2 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 19th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Braden Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Braden Montgomery is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Sam Antonacci – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Sam Antonacci has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
