Player Predictions Overview for D-Backs vs Reds - 6/12/2026

-115O/U: 9.5
(-105/-115)-105

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
Eduardo Rodriguez has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
Gabriel Moreno is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Given the 1.92 discrepancy between Nick Lodolo’s 6.89 K/9 and his 8.81 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform better in future games.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
JJ Bleday may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 25.1% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)

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