
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Chicago White Sox
-145O/U: 9
(+100/-120)+120
(+100/-120)+120
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Roki Sasaki’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.2 mph this season (96.6 mph) over where it was last year (95.4 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)As it relates to his batting average ability, Shohei Ohtani is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jacob Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Jacob Gonzalez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Drew Romo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Drew Romo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-135)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Sam Antonacci – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Sam Antonacci has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
