Review Betting Odds and Picks for Braves vs Mets - Friday, June 12, 2026

+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130

Spencer Strider – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Spencer Strider will record an average of 14.8 outs in this game.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nolan McLean – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Nolan McLean’s high usage rate of his fastball (52.3% this year) is likely dampening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Hitting 4 home runs over the last two weeks, Marcus Semien has been on fire of late.
Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
It may be wise to expect better results for the New York Mets offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+5.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
Carson Benge has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+4.55 Units / 15% ROI)

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