Astros vs Royals Best Bets and Expert Picks - Friday June 12, 2026

-110O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-110

Tatsuya Imai – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
Throwing 97.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Tatsuya Imai ranks in the 97th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yordan Alvarez as the 2nd-best batter in the league as it relates to his batting average skill.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)
The 4th-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Houston Astros.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Luinder Avila – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Luinder Avila ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Jac Caglianone has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)

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