
Chicago Cubs
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Pittsburgh Pirates
-110O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-110
(-120/+100)-110
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Pittsburgh’s 2nd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Seiya Suzuki, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The Chicago Cubs have hit 32% of their balls in the air at least 100 mph this year, making them the #8 squad in MLB by this stat.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)Tallying 14.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Bubba Chandler falls in the 16th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Marcell Ozuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-165)Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)
