
Tampa Bay Rays
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Baltimore Orioles
-130O/U: 9.5
(-105/-115)+110
(-105/-115)+110
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-130)Out of every team today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Tampa Bay Rays – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trey Gibson – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)Compared to league average, Trey Gibson has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -15.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)Tyler O’Neill is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-150)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+130)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+170/-225)Junior Caminero has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 102% ROI)
