D-Backs vs Dodgers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/11/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate has fallen 107 rpm this year (2461 rpm) below where it was last year (2568 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #25 team in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-310)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In today’s matchup, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.6% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+7.90 Units / 34% ROI)