D-Backs vs Dodgers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/11/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball spin rate has fallen 107 rpm this year (2461 rpm) below where it was last year (2568 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #25 team in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-285)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #4 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In today’s matchup, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.6% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)