Learn About Braves vs Cardinals Picks and Betting Trends – Saturday July 11, 2026

Atlanta Braves

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St. Louis Cardinals

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Reynaldo Lopez has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.9% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jorge Mateo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Jorge Mateo has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 10% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves batters as a unit rank 7th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 8.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Matthew Liberatore’s 2105-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 6th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jordan Walker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.1-mph to 100.3-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+8.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 41% ROI)