Red Sox vs Mets Injury Report – Saturday, July 11, 2026

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Mets

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Freddy Peralta’s 2422-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 78th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  A.J. Ewing has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect positive regression for the New York Mets offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 54% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1700)
  A.J. Ewing has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+21.40 Units / 357% ROI)