Red Sox vs Mets Injury Report – Saturday, July 11, 2026

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Mets

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Brayan Bello has utilized his sinker 8.2% more often this season (42.8%) than he did last season (34.6%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Freddy Peralta’s 2422-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 78th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jared Young – Over/Under Hits
  Jared Young has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be best to expect positive regression for the New York Mets offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.