Team Stats and Insights for Cubs vs Reds Match Preview - 7/11/2026

-120O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+100

Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Javier Assad’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (58.6% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Cincinnati’s 2nd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (41% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+100)
Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
TJ Friedl is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics