Expert Picks and Betting Line for Nationals vs Reds – Tuesday May 12th, 2026

Washington Nationals

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Cincinnati Reds

Washington Nationals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Miles Mikolas’s sinker percentage has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (16.6% to 21.8%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  James Wood has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 16.1% rate last year to 27.2% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Brady Singer’s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 91.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Elly De La Cruz’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.2-mph now compared to just 90.7-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Elly De La Cruz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 21% ROI)