Expert Picks and Betting Line for Nationals vs Reds – Tuesday May 12th, 2026

Washington Nationals

@

Cincinnati Reds

Washington Nationals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Miles Mikolas’s sinker percentage has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (16.6% to 21.8%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Daylen Lile is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Brady Singer’s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 91.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  JJ Bleday has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season’s 88.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Elly De La Cruz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 21% ROI)