Game Time for Reds vs Cubs – 5/06/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Brady Singer’s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 91.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt McLain is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Throwing 94.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Colin Rea ranks in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 35% ROI)