Game Time for Reds vs Cubs – 5/06/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Brady Singer’s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 91.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  JJ Bleday is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Throwing 94.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Colin Rea ranks in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.7-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs bats collectively place 8th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 33% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or harder.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Carson Kelly has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 56% ROI)