Review Betting Odds and Picks for Cubs vs Reds – Sunday, July 12, 2026

Chicago Cubs

@

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Matthew Boyd projects to strikeout an average of 6 bats in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Abbott in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  JJ Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Sal Stewart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 away games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)