Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Cardinals vs Marlins – 4/21/26

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  In his last start, Dustin May conceded a whopping 6 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jordan Walker has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year’s 92.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 94 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Chris Paddack ranks in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Owen Caissie).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jordan Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)