Twins vs Padres Picks and Odds - August 23, 2026

+135O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-155

Bailey Ober – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Considering that flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Bailey Ober and his 43.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today’s matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Byron Buxton’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 96.9-mph average last season has fallen to 94.5-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Minnesota Twins has been 113.7 mph this year, putting them as the #25 team in baseball by this stat.
Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.

Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Walker Buehler has used his cutter 7.9% more often this season (25.1%) than he did last year (17.2%).
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Batters such as Xander Bogaerts with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Bailey Ober who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-155)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units / 21% ROI)
Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+3.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)

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