Check Out the Reds vs Rays Betting Guide and Expert Picks - 4/21/2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-110

Chase Burns – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Chase Burns’s 97.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 98th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
Dane Myers is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rece Hinds, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Steven Matz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Matz to throw 85 pitches today (10th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.4-mph EV last season has fallen to 80.5-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Tampa Bay Rays batters as a group place 30th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 4.5% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+8.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)

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