Player Predictions for Pirates vs Dodgers - August 23, 2026

+240O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-290

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+215)
Carmen Mlodzinski has gone to his change-up 14.4% more often this season (26%) than he did last year (11.6%).
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Billy Cook – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Billy Cook is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Blake Snell – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Blake Snell’s 95.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph jump from last year’s 94.5-mph mark.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
Over the past two weeks, Kyle Tucker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-290)
The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup grades out as the best on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.15 Units / 60% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 away games (+6.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+290/-420)
Max Muncy has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+6.85 Units / 137% ROI)

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