
Arizona Diamondbacks
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Baltimore Orioles
+135O/U: 9
(-105/-115)-155
(-105/-115)-155
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Kyle Bradish has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
