See the Odds and Betting Tips for Pirates vs Athletics – June 17th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Athletics

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Braxton Ashcraft in the 90th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jake Mangum tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Aaron Civale.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Aaron Civale’s 2396-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 77th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage over Braxton Ashcraft today.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Today’s version of the Athletics projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .328 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .340 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+2.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 away games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 43% ROI)