
Chicago White Sox
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Milwaukee Brewers
+140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Munetaka Murakami – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Munetaka Murakami has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Anthony Kay – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Edgar Quero (the White Sox’s expected catcher today) projects as a horrible pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brandon Sproat – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+165/-220)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Brandon Sproat to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Joey Ortiz’s 86-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Milwaukee Brewers batters collectively place 29th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 6.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-165)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 136 games (+22.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Colson Montgomery has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 46% ROI)
