Expert Picks and Betting Line for Pirates vs Mets – Sunday March 29th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

New York Mets

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carmen Mlodzinski to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Mangum tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nolan McLean.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Nolan McLean in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Since the start of last season, Juan Soto’s 17.8% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 97th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York’s 90.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in baseball: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 92 of their last 151 games (+26.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)