Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-235
As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 26, 2025, both teams are looking to shake off disappointing seasons. The Giants sit at 78-81, while the Rockies are languishing at 43-116. The Giants have already clinched a non-contending status in the division, while the Rockies are simply trying to finish strong. In their last meeting, the Giants edged out the Rockies 4-3, adding another notch to their belt.
The Giants will send Trevor McDonald to the mound, a right-hander who has had a mixed bag of results this season. Although his ERA is a solid 3.38, advanced stats suggest he may have been lucky, as his xERA sits at 5.15. McDonald has only made one start this year and projects to pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. He faces a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in MLB in strikeouts, which could play to his advantage given his low strikeout rate of 11.8 K%.
On the other side, German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. His struggles this season are evident with a 6.49 ERA and a 3-15 record. While Marquez has pitched better recently, including a solid outing where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 7 innings, his overall performance has been subpar. He projects to allow 3.1 earned runs today, which is still a cause for concern.
The Giants’ offense has not been stellar, ranking 22nd in MLB, but they will look to capitalize on Marquez’s vulnerabilities. With an implied team total of 5.10 runs, the Giants are favored in this matchup, showing signs of potential despite their overall struggles this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies face a daunting task with an implied total of just 3.40 runs, reflecting their season-long offensive woes.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Hitters such as Mickey Moniak with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trevor McDonald who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Trevor McDonald’s 1990-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 9th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Bryce Eldridge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Bryce Eldridge has a ton of pop (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (31.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher German Marquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (7th percentile K%) — great news for Eldridge.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 70 away games (+17.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-205)Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games at home (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)