Los Angeles Angels
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-270
The Milwaukee Brewers will face the Los Angeles Angels on September 16, 2025, at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Brewers are enjoying a stellar season with a record of 91-59 and currently sit atop the playoff race, while the Angels have struggled, holding a 69-81 record. In their most recent games, the Brewers lost a close contest to the New York Mets by a score of 3-2, and the Angels were defeated decisively by the Oakland Athletics, 11-2.
Freddy Peralta is projected to start for the Brewers, bringing a solid Win/Loss record of 16-6 and an impressive ERA of 2.69. Despite a rough outing in his last start, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings, Peralta ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His high strikeout rate (27.5 K%) positions him well against an Angels offense that leads MLB in strikeouts.
On the other mound, Caden Dana will take the hill for the Angels. He is still searching for his first win of the season at 0-1, with a troubling ERA of 6.32. Dana’s last start was equally disappointing, as he surrendered 5 earned runs over 5 innings. His high walk rate (15.5 BB%) could be exploited by the Brewers, who are among the league leaders in drawing walks.
The projections suggest a high implied team total of 5.21 runs for the Brewers, indicating strong expectations for their offense, which ranks 10th best in MLB. Conversely, the Angels’ offense, ranked 22nd, has not performed consistently. With the Brewers’ power against Dana’s vulnerabilities, it sets the stage for a compelling matchup where the Brewers should have the advantage.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Caden Dana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Caden Dana’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2202 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2143 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Today’s version of the Angels projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .310 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .331 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Freddy Peralta has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Sal Frelick’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 85.4-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.6-mph in the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit rank 30th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 6.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-270)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 105 games (+29.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 62 of their last 106 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)