D-Backs vs Pirates Picks and Betting Tips - July 27th, 2026

+100O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-120

Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Merrill Kelly’s cut-fastball percentage has dropped by 5.6% from last season to this one (20.6% to 15%) .
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
Mitch Keller’s 92.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 22nd percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
Jake Mangum has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

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