D-Backs vs Pirates Picks and Betting Tips - July 27th, 2026

-105O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-115

Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Merrill Kelly’s cut-fastball percentage has dropped by 5.6% from last season to this one (20.6% to 15%) .
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
The Arizona Diamondbacks offense projects for the 4th-most runs on the slate today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Mitch Keller’s 92.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 21st percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .332 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Mitch Keller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 54% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics