Check the Weather for Brewers vs Rangers Game – 9/10/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on September 10, 2025, the stakes continue to rise. The Brewers, holding a commanding record of 89-57, are firmly in the playoff race, while the Rangers, at 76-70, are battling for a potential Wild Card spot. In their last encounter, the Rangers edged out the Brewers with a narrow 5-4 victory, adding pressure on Milwaukee to even the score in this crucial series.

This matchup features two right-handed pitchers with contrasting seasons. Merrill Kelly, projected to start for Texas, has had a solid year with an 11-7 record and a respectable ERA of 3.16. However, his 3.83 xFIP suggests that he may be due for some regression. In his last start on September 5, Kelly pitched well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings. He projects to pitch about 5.5 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs on average, but his strikeout rate of 4.8 batters is below average.

On the other side, Freddy Peralta is having a standout season for Milwaukee, boasting a record of 16-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.50. Peralta’s last outing was particularly noteworthy, as he threw five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts on September 4. He is projected to allow only 2.0 earned runs today, with a slightly higher xFIP of 3.98.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 9th in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd best batting average, while the Rangers’ offense sits at 26th overall, struggling to generate consistent runs. This stark contrast could favor Milwaukee, especially considering the Rangers’ low implied team total of 3.53 runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Freddy Peralta has utilized his slider 12.2% less often this year (9.4%) than he did last season (21.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Joey Ortiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.8-mph average last year has fallen off to 85.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starting pitchers, Merrill Kelly’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph ranks in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, notching a .302 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .346 — a .044 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Texas Rangers bats jointly place 21st- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 30.4% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives at least 100 mph.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 73 of their last 143 games (+29.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+7.70 Units / 16% ROI)