Betting Guide and Odds for Blue Jays vs Orioles – Thursday May 28, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.2% less often this season (62%) than he did last year (68.2%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 6.3% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays makes them the #28 offense in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Chris Bassitt’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 9th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 95-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+160/-205)
  Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.95 Units / 99% ROI)