Chicago Cubs
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
+145O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-170
(-110/-110)-170
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Colin Rea’s change-up utilization has spiked by 6.3% from last year to this one (12.3% to 18.6%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago Cubs hitters as a unit grade out 7th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 32.2% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100+ mph.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (96.5 mph) below where it was last season (97.5 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+180/-235)Marcell Ozuna has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 97.8-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+200/-270)Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.