Yankees vs Astros Game Time – 9/04/2025

New York Yankees

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the New York Yankees on September 4, 2025, at Minute Maid Park, both teams are enjoying strong seasons. The Astros currently hold a record of 77-63, while the Yankees are slightly ahead at 77-62. This matchup features two of the most potent lineups in baseball, with the Yankees boasting the 1st best offense in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs, having hit 239 this season.

In their last encounter, the Astros edged out the Yankees in a thrilling 8-7 finish, further intensifying the rivalry as they face off for the third game in this series. Cristian Javier, projected to start for the Astros, recently showcased his potential by pitching a remarkable no-hitter in his last outing on August 29, where he went 6 innings with 0 earned runs and 6 strikeouts. However, his season has been somewhat uneven, with a 1-1 record over 4 starts and a concerning 5.31 xFIP, suggesting he may not maintain his recent success.

Conversely, Carlos Rodon, the Yankees’ starter, has been more consistent this season, holding a 15-7 record and a solid 3.18 ERA. Despite being a high-walk pitcher himself, Rodon faces an Astros offense that struggles to draw walks, ranking 6th least in MLB. This matchup could play to Rodon’s advantage as he looks to capitalize on the Astros’ impatience at the plate.

The projections indicate a competitive game, with the Astros given an average implied team total of 3.96 runs against the Yankees’ higher total of 4.54. Given the recent performances and the overall talent on display, this game promises to be an exciting chapter in what has already been an electric series.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity has decreased 2.1 mph this year (93.5 mph) below where it was last season (95.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-140)
  The best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Cristian Javier – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a big edge over flyball batters, Cristian Javier and his 45.3% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this matchup squaring off against 3 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yordan Alvarez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.9-mph to 99.3-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in baseball: #30 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 137 games (+18.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-165)
  Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 23% ROI)