Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Mets vs Tigers Wednesday, September 3, 2025

New York Mets

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the New York Mets on September 3, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Tigers are currently holding steady in the playoff race with an 80-60 record, while the Mets sit at 75-64, both teams vying for momentum as they gear up for the final stretch of the season. In their previous game, the Tigers stumbled, losing to the Mets 12-5, a performance that will add urgency to their efforts today.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Casey Mize, who’s had a solid season with a 12-5 record and a 3.95 ERA. However, Mize is coming off an abbreviated start where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 3 innings. This raises concerns about his recent form, especially given that he projects to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs today, which is not ideal.

Clay Holmes takes the ball for the Mets, boasting a strong 11-6 record and a 3.60 ERA. Holmes is coming off a favorable outing where he held the opposition to just 2 earned runs in 5 innings, reflecting his reliability as a starter. His projections suggest he may also struggle, allowing 2.5 earned runs today, but his overall performance has been more consistent compared to Mize’s recent struggles.

Offensively, the Mets feature the 4th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by a powerful best hitter who has been on fire recently, recording 5 home runs in the past week with a .417 batting average. The Tigers, meanwhile, rank 11th in MLB for offensive production, but their recent form doesn’t inspire confidence against a stronger Mets bullpen, which ranks 4th overall.

Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Tigers’ current moneyline at +100 and the Mets at -120. With both teams in good form despite their last matchup, the Tigers need a bounce-back performance to even the score.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  In his previous start, Clay Holmes was rolling and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Starling Marte is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-115)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88-mph figure last year has lowered to 86-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers bats as a group place 6th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+15.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 50% ROI)