San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-120
On August 12, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park for the second game of their series. The Giants currently sit at 59-60 and are having a mediocre season, while the Padres, at 67-52, are performing well overall. In the previous matchup, the Giants unfortunately fell to the Padres by a score of 4-1, a result that doesn’t bode well for their morale going into this game.
The matchup features left-handed pitchers Robbie Ray for the Giants and Nestor Cortes for the Padres. Ray is having a solid season with a 9-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.85, ranking him as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average. However, his xFIP of 3.96 indicates that he might be due for some regression. Ray’s last start was on August 6, where he threw 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters.
In contrast, Cortes has struggled this season, holding a record of 1-1 with a dismal ERA of 7.11 in only 3 starts. While projections suggest he may improve, the Giants’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, making it hard to predict success against any pitcher currently. Despite these numbers, the projections do favor the Giants slightly, indicating they could outperform expectations, especially given that they have had some success against low-power lineups like the Padres’.
With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets see this as a close contest, and with the current moneylines, the odds reflect a game that could swing either way. As fans gear up for this encounter, keep an eye on how Ray navigates a lineup that struggles with power, which might just tip the scales in favor of San Francisco.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Nestor Cortes’s cutter usage has risen by 9.9% from last year to this one (28.2% to 38.1%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)When it comes to his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Robbie Ray’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (92.9 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 away games (+15.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+24.00 Units / 480% ROI)