Prediction and Game Breakdown: Athletics vs Orioles Match Friday August 8, 2025

Athletics

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Baltimore Orioles

On August 8, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Oakland Athletics at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, kicking off a crucial series for both teams. Currently, the Orioles sit at 52-63, while the Athletics are slightly behind at 51-66, both having disappointing seasons. The stakes are high for both clubs as they look to find some momentum, especially with the Orioles coming off a tough loss in their last game.

The matchup on the mound features Tomoyuki Sugano for the Orioles and J.T. Ginn for the Athletics. Sugano, ranked 268th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a season filled with challenges, evidenced by his 4.42 ERA and a concerning 5.85 xERA, which suggests he may have been lucky thus far. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings but is expected to allow 3.3 earned runs, which could be detrimental against a potent Athletics lineup.

On the other hand, J.T. Ginn, ranked 60th among MLB starters, brings a more favorable outlook with his 4.28 ERA and a 3.51 xFIP that indicates he has been unlucky this year. Ginn’s projections suggest he could pitch 4.9 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs, making him a more reliable option in this matchup.

Offensively, the Athletics boast the 7th best offense in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average ranking of 8th. In contrast, the Orioles rank 17th overall, with a troubling 20th in team batting average. The Orioles do have some pop, ranking 10th in home runs, but their overall offensive struggles could be exposed against Ginn’s solid pitching.

With both teams desperate for a win, the Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. The projections favor the Athletics slightly in this matchup, but with both teams evenly matched, it could go either way.

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against J.T. Ginn in this matchup, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Nicholas Kurtz has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (30.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano struggles to strike batters out (9th percentile K%) — great news for Kurtz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  In his last GS, Tomoyuki Sugano wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Dylan Carlson’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 84.7-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under Total Bases
  Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+12.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 58 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 29% ROI)