Read the Game Recap for D-Backs vs Pirates – July 27th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 27, 2025, at PNC Park, they are coming off a tough season. With a record of 43-62, the Pirates rank 30th in MLB power rankings, underscoring their struggles both on offense and defense. In their previous game, the Pirates lost to the Diamondbacks, continuing their frustrating campaign.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Paul Skenes for the Pirates and Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Skenes, ranked 2nd among starting pitchers in MLB, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.91 this season, indicating elite performance despite a 5-8 win/loss record. His ability to limit walks (6.3 BB%) will be crucial against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for drawing walks. Conversely, Gallen’s season has not been as favorable, with a 5.58 ERA and a win/loss record of 7-11, despite an above-average xFIP of 4.09.

Offensively, the Pirates sit at a dismal 30th place in team batting average and home runs, which is a significant disadvantage as they face a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd overall. However, the Pirates’ strength lies in their speed, placing 9th in MLB for stolen bases, which could play a role in their strategy.

With the Pirates listed as favorites at -155 and a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this game is pivotal for them to gain momentum. The projections suggest that Pittsburgh could score around 4.11 runs, while the Diamondbacks are projected to manage a lower total of 3.39 runs. Given the current trends and the overall matchup, the Pirates may have an edge if Skenes can maintain his elite performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Zac Gallen has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged being matched up with 6 same-handed bats in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive skill to be a .310, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .043 deviation between that figure and his actual .353 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this season (97.5 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 76 games (+19.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 95 games (+13.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)