Discover the Pirates vs Royals Game Time – July 07, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Kauffman Stadium on July 7, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Royals sitting at 43-48 and the Pirates at 38-53. The Royals are performing below average, while the Pirates’ record indicates a particularly dismal campaign.

In their most recent outings, the Royals secured a shutout victory against the Texas Rangers, winning 4-0, while the Pirates fell narrowly to the Chicago Cubs, losing 1-0. This sets the stage for a matchup between two teams desperate for a turnaround.

Noah Cameron is projected to start for Kansas City, bringing a solid 2.56 ERA this season, though he ranks as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Cameron’s low strikeout rate of 19.3% could work in his favor against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts. Additionally, Cameron’s tendency to induce fly balls (40% FB rate) could be advantageous against a Pirates lineup that has hit the fewest home runs in MLB this season, with just 61.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney will take the mound for Pittsburgh, sporting a 4.16 ERA and a troubling trend as one of the worst pitchers in the league. Heaney’s low strikeout percentage (18.4%) may be problematic against a Royals offense that strikes out the least in MLB.

With the Royals favored at -150, the projections suggest an implied team total of 4.89 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Heaney’s struggles. This matchup could provide an opportunity for Kansas City to gain momentum as they seek to improve their standing in a challenging season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this season (89.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Noah Cameron.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 10th-worst) when it comes to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Noah Cameron (42.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nick Loftin has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 90 games (+34.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI)