New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds
(-110/-110)+145
On June 24, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. The Reds are currently sitting at 41-38, while the Yankees boast a strong record of 45-33, indicating a clear disparity in performance this season. The Yankees are considered a betting favorite with a moneyline of -160 and an implied team total of 5.25 runs, while the Reds are underdogs at +140 with an average implied team total of 4.25 runs.
In their previous game, the Reds faced the Yankees and were unable to secure a win, adding pressure as they look to turn things around. Cincinnati’s Chase Burns is projected to start, and although he ranks as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his average projections are concerning. Burns is expected to pitch only 4.3 innings and allow an alarming 2.9 earned runs, alongside 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks. This could spell trouble against a Yankees offense that ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their prowess with a team batting average of .285 and 2nd in home runs.
Carlos Rodon, the Yankees’ projected starter, has had a notable season with a 9-5 record and a solid 3.10 ERA. While his projections show he may also struggle with walks, he is expected to pitch longer than Burns, which could give the Yankees a significant advantage.
With the Reds’ bullpen ranked 29th and the Yankees’ at 6th, the matchup heavily favors New York. The Reds will need a standout performance from their hitters to overcome the odds, especially as their best player has been performing well lately, with a .381 batting average over the past week. However, the Yankees’ offensive firepower could be too much to handle, making this game one to watch for bettors and fans alike.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Anthony Volpe has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 75.4-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 11.2% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #2 group of hitters in MLB this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Batters such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+15.82 Units / 22% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+125/-160)Carlos Rodon has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)