Track the Live Score for Orioles vs Yankees – 6/21/2025

Baltimore Orioles logo

Baltimore Orioles

@
New York Yankees logo

New York Yankees

+150O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)
-170

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on June 21, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, currently boasting a record of 43-32, are in solid contention this season, while the Orioles sit at 33-42, struggling to find consistency. In their last game, the Yankees secured a win against the Orioles, further solidifying their position as they aim to continue their winning ways.

Clarke Schmidt is slated to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite a mixed season with a 3-3 record and a stellar ERA of 3.16, Schmidt’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.08. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, which aligns with his average performance this year. His strikeout rate of 5.4 batters per game is decent, but he needs to improve on allowing hits, with a projection of 4.9.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Zach Eflin. With a better win-loss record of 6-3 and an ERA of 4.81, Eflin’s performance is also marked by some inconsistency. His xFIP of 4.12 suggests he might be due for an upswing, and he projects to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing about 3.2 earned runs. However, his strikeout rate is below-average at 4.5, which could be a concern against a potent Yankees lineup.

The Yankees’ offense ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their ability to hit for power, with a strong home run tally. This could pose problems for Eflin, who faces a high-walk Yankees offense, though his low walk rate may mitigate some of that threat. The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating an expectation of scoring, and the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -170, reflecting a strong outlook for their chances in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

  • Zach Eflin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
    Zach Eflin wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and posted 2 Ks.
    Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
  • Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
    Extreme groundball bats like Cedric Mullins usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Clarke Schmidt.
    Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
  • Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
    The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
    Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

  • New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
    Clarke Schmidt is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors today.
    Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
  • Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
    Aaron Judge has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 24.9% seasonal rate to 30.4% over the last 14 days.
    Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
  • Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
    In today’s matchup, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (90th percentile).
    Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.32 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+150)
    The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ben Rice – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
    Ben Rice has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 59% ROI)