Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
(+100/-120)-110
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles on June 17, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Rays, currently holding a solid 40-32 record, are positioned well in the American League East, while the Orioles are struggling at 30-41. The two teams faced off just yesterday, with Tampa Bay securing a convincing 7-1 victory, further emphasizing the disparity in their seasons.
On the mound, the Rays are set to start Zack Littell, who has had a mixed season with a 6-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.84. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have benefited from some luck, as his xERA of 4.63 indicates he could be in for a rougher stretch. Littell’s tendency to limit walks (3.2 BB%) could work against him, especially against an Orioles lineup that has shown patience at the plate.
Dean Kremer takes the hill for Baltimore, sporting a 5-7 record and a less-than-ideal ERA of 4.99. While Kremer’s xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat unlucky, his recent performance has been troubling, highlighted by a start on June 6 where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 5 innings. His struggles could be exacerbated by a Rays offense that ranks 13th overall this season and is particularly adept at getting on base.
Betting markets have set the Game Total at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for offensive fireworks. While the Rays are favored with a moneyline of -115, their implied team total of 4.81 runs reflects a belief in their ability to capitalize on Kremer’s recent difficulties. As such, the Rays appear to be in a prime position to continue their winning ways against a struggling Orioles squad.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)In his last outing, Dean Kremer allowed a staggering 5 earned runs.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Ramon Laureano’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 76.5-mph over the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Zack Littell – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Zack Littell has recorded 18.6 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Dean Kremer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- As a team, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have done poorly in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 3rd-worst in MLB.Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-110)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Dylan Carlson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)