Live Stream for Twins vs Reds Game – Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Cincinnati Reds

An intriguing Interleague matchup unfolds on June 17, 2025, as the Cincinnati Reds host the Minnesota Twins at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Reds at 37-35 and the Twins slightly behind at 36-35. Cincinnati’s recent performance features an impressive win by a score of 8-4 on June 15, while Minnesota is coming off a narrow 2-1 loss.

Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott is set to take the mound, and he’s been nothing short of remarkable this season. With a 6-1 record and an excellent ERA of 1.87, Abbott is positioned as the 97th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. His last outing saw him throw a complete game shutout on June 10, demonstrating his capacity to dominate. However, projections suggest he could face challenges, as he is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs over approximately 5.2 innings today.

On the other side, Minnesota’s David Festa, with a record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.76, has also had a solid outing recently, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings in his last start. Despite having an average performance this season, Festa’s projections indicate he may improve, given his xFIP of 4.23, which is lower than his current ERA.

Offensively, the Reds rank 10th in MLB, showcasing a strong lineup, while the Twins sit at 17th. The Reds have the edge in power, ranking 11th in home runs, compared to Minnesota’s 17th. Given Cincinnati’s recent form and Abbott’s impressive track record, they could be poised for a strong showing against a Twins team that has struggled offensively. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should watch closely how these dynamics play out.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  David Festa’s slider usage has dropped by 5.5% from last year to this one (31.9% to 26.4%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Trevor Larnach has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Andrew Abbott’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (91.5 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jake Fraley has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)