Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Yankees vs Royals – June 11th, 2025

New York Yankees

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals take on the New York Yankees on June 11, 2025, at Kauffman Stadium, baseball fans are treated to an intriguing matchup. Both teams have shown varying degrees of success this season, with the Yankees boasting a strong 40-25 record, solidifying their position among the league’s elite. The Royals, however, are hovering around .500 with their 34-33 record, indicating an average season.

In their last encounter, the Yankees emerged victorious, and they continue to dominate at the plate, ranking 1st overall in MLB offense. Clarke Schmidt takes the mound for New York, bringing a respectable 4.04 ERA this season. While he projects to allow an average of 2.7 earned runs today, he faces a Royals lineup that struggles with power, ranking 30th in home runs. Schmidt’s high fly-ball percentage could work to his advantage, given Kansas City’s lack of pop.

Kris Bubic, the Royals’ projected starter, is having a standout year with a 1.43 ERA, though advanced metrics suggest some regression may be on the horizon. He’s ranked 31st among MLB starters and will try to fend off a powerful Yankees offense that has been relentless in generating runs.

Expectations are high for this game, with a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a close contest. Betting markets show a narrow margin as the Royals carry a moneyline of +105, while the Yankees sit at -125. With their potent lineup and solid pitching, the Yankees look to maintain their position atop the league, while the Royals are eager to secure a much-needed series win.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Clarke Schmidt has utilized his non-fastballs 10.5% more often this season (89.6%) than he did last season (79.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Trent Grisham is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Kris Bubic’s 2416-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Drew Waters – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Drew Waters has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 76.1-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games at home (+17.35 Units / 47% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 63 games (+7.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 34% ROI)