Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Blue Jays vs Twins – 6/8/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 8, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive positions within the American League. The Twins, with a record of 34-30, are currently performing above average, while the Blue Jays sit slightly ahead at 35-29. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the third game of their series, with the Twins looking to rebound from a narrow 5-4 loss to the Blue Jays yesterday.

On the mound, the Twins will send out Joe Ryan, who has established himself as one of the more reliable pitchers in the league. With a Win/Loss record of 6-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.91, Ryan ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, he may face challenges against the Blue Jays’ offense, which ranks 11th overall and boasts a solid batting average of .276.

In contrast, the Blue Jays will counter with Bowden Francis, who has struggled this season, holding a record of 2-7 and an ERA of 5.84. His last outing was particularly rough, as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 2 innings pitched. The projections suggest that Francis could perform better moving forward, but he’ll need to show significant improvements to match Ryan’s effectiveness.

The Twins’ offense, while ranking 18th overall, has been inconsistent, particularly in terms of power, as they sit 20th in home runs. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have a more balanced attack, which could give them an edge in this matchup. With the Twins favored at -175, the betting line suggests a strong likelihood of a Minnesota victory, but the Blue Jays’ recent form and offensive capabilities could keep the game competitive. The Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially close contest.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Bowden Francis is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The Minnesota Twins don’t have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Nathan Lukes is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Joe Ryan’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (64.9 compared to 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Bowden Francis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)